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When Roger West first launched the progressive political blog "News From The Other Side" in May 2010, he could hardly have predicted the impact that his venture would have on the media and political debate. As the New Media emerged as a counterbalance to established media sources, Roger wrote his copious blogs about national politics, the tea party movement, mid-term elections, and the failings of the radical right to the vanguard of the New Media movement. Roger West's efforts as a leading blogger have tremendous reach. NFTOS has led the effort to bring accountability to mainstream media sources such as FOX NEWS,CNN and Andy Breitbart's "Big Journalism. Roger's breadth of experience, engaging style, and cultivation of loyal readership - over 92 million visitors - give him unique insight into the past, present, and future of the New Media and political rhetoric that exists in our society today. What we are against: Radical Right Wing Agendas Incompetent Establishment Public Coruption Corporate Malfeasence We are for: Global and Econmoic Security Social and Economic Justice Media Accountability Healthy Communities

Sunday, November 4, 2012

BOTTOM LINE

IF MINORITIES VOTE "BINDERS FULL O' WOMEN" LOSES


If Minorities Vote, Romney Can't Win: Gaming Out the Popular Vote Possibilities.

Let NFTOS be more specific: If turnout and support is as high among minorities as polls indicate, and if President Obama gets at least as much support from white voters as Democratic House candidates did in the horrid 2010 midterm elections, then Romney cannot win the popular vote.

But you can play with the numbers yourself to predict Obama's margin, with your own assumptions.

It just takes three simple steps!

1. Pick the level of minority support you think Obama will get
Scenario 1 - 2008 levels (this is about what general polls show)
Scenario 2 - better than 2008 (this is what minority-specific polls show, see below)
Scenario 3 - 2004 levels (what Republicans are hoping for, or at least something close)
(Update: for example, in 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning the Hispanic vote by a 36 point margin, and in 2004 they showed Kerry winning the Hispanic vote by a 9 point margin.)

2. Pick your racial demographics
In 2008, the electorate was 74% white, according to exit polls. Since 1992, the electorate has been ~3.2 points less white each cycle, which would put us at 71% white this year. But Gallup says that won't happen this year, and 2012 will be the same as 2008. Meanwhile, Conventional Wisdom says minorities are bummed and won't turn out this year. Minority voters themselves say otherwise when asked.

3. Pick your level of white support
In 2008, Obama had 43% support from white voters. In 2010, House Democrats had 38%. In 1984, Mondale had 35%. Polls are currently showing around 38-41% (splitting undecideds and leaving 1.5% other.) At least one pollster is known to have overestimated white support for Democrats in 2010, however.

If Obama can do just one point better among whites than Democrats did in 2010 - 39% - (which would occur even if preferences among whites stay the same as 2010, because of greater turnout from young voters) then Obama cannot lose the popular vote as long as he maintains support among minorities at 2008 levels (Scenario 1) - and especially if he increases it (Scenario 2). It wouldn't even matter if turnout bucks history and yields an electorate 1% more white than the previous electorate. So the main question is - was 2010 a recent low point for white support for Democrats, or will it go lower? Details and explanations below the fold.

NFTOS readers, get out and vote, its only 48 hours until we decide whether to move this country forward, or take it back pre 1950's. You can vote and write the menu or you can sit back and be the menu, its you call!



NFTOS
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Roger West