How is it that a man with barely a high school education can gather so much power in American. Would it be that the followers are less educated than him? Would it be that Americans have little real time to fact check the scare monger tactics of one Glenn Beck? Would it be that Republicans and extremist tea baggers believe anything stated to them via Rupert Murdock TV? NFTOS says yes to all the above.
Today "The Beckistan" states he has and is forecasting (quoting Beck "which I hope I am wrong") that our country is headed for the catastrophic event called "Hindenburg Omen or (Effect). This scare policy is the MO (method of operation) for the extremist to the right. Why is that? Because they have zero "sustainable" policies or platforms to run on.
If Beckistan had an actual following, the masses would be running amuck in the streets. Beckistan's scare tactics rival that of the asshat whom screams "fire" in the movie theater! But as the story unfolds you see how the twisted Beckistan weaves this event to his new book and tithing to the church of Beckistan.
Hang on readers we are going to get very dry in context and the topics maybe hard to follow. We shall do our best to explain the "News From The Other Side"!
Three variants to Beckistans ideology are based on;
1. Hindenburg Omen or (Effect)
2. McClellan Oscillator
3. George Soros
Please understand that the Hindenburg Omen is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress!!!!
Reiterating, Glenn Beck has dropped out of more colleges than most. So like his mentor Joe Smith (founder of Mormonism)Glenn is a little shy on structured higher education! While he may be well read, NFTOS believes that most of Glenn's readings come from obtuse writers whom have all been construed as a little less than having a full deck of cards for brains!
What is the Hindenburg Omen? The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis pattern that is said to portend a stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6, 1937, during which the German Zeppelin Hindenburg was destroyed. The Omen is largely based on Norman G. Fosback's High Low Logic Index (HLLI). The value of the HLLI is the lesser of the NYSE new highs or new lows divided by the number of NYSE issues traded, smoothed by an appropriate exponential moving average. The Omen itself is said to have originated with Jim Miekka, and the name was suggested by the late Kennedy Gammage.
The intent or mechanics of this phenomenon is that the Hindenburg Omen is a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole. The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash.
The rationale is that under "normal conditions" either a substantial number of stocks may set new annual highs or annual lows, but not both at the same time. As a healthy market possesses a degree of uniformity, whether up or down, the simultaneous presence of many new highs and lows may signal trouble.
The criterion for the Hindenburg Omen is daily calculations using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. (Other exchanges may be used as well.) Some have been re calibrated by Miekka to reduce statistical noise and make the indicator a more reliable predictor of a future decline.
1.The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (typically, 84) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000). An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today's market).
2.The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.
The McClellan Oscillatoris negative on the same day. (The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator used by financial analysts of the New York Stock Exchange to evaluate the rate of money entering or leaving the market and interpretively indicate overbought or oversold conditions of the market.)4.New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).
The traditional definition requires each condition to occur on the same day. Once the signal has occurred, it is valid for 30 days, and any additional signals given during the 30-day period should be ignored. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator is negative, but deactivated whenever it is positive.
Potential weaknesses are; To eliminate false positives some technical analysts have imposed the condition that the Hindenburg Omen;
1. Must be triggered three times in a row within a month from the first triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid (i.e. requires double confirmation)
2. Is only valid when "all tightly coupled triggerings are within a fortnight"
3. Will indicate a possible future downturn or correction, depending on the magnitude of any "one off" triggering
NFTOS concludes that from historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% [The Wall Street Journal 8/23/2010 article cited below states that accuracy is 25%, looking at period from 1985], and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.
Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of over fitting. That is, by back testing through a large data set with many different variables, correlations can be found that do not really have predictive significance.
With the plethora of variants for this theory or conclusion requires a man with more than a high school education to be making bold statements in worldly and or United States economics. Please Glenn, leave this type of work to the subject matter experts, and you sir are not, nor shall you ever be a being we go to for economics!
(For reader information in August 2010 four dates met the criterion for the Hindenburg Omen. These are August 12,20,24,25,31.)
Glenn Beckistan goes on to say that all the economic woes come from George Soros. Mr. Soros is is a Hungarian-American currency speculator, stock investor, businessman, philanthropist, and liberal political activist. He became known as "the Man Who Broke the Bank of England" after he made a reported $1 billion during the 1992 Black Wednesday UK currency crises. While Mr. Soros has been proven to fund the left against G.W.Bush in his Presidential bid in 2004,NFTOS doubts seriously that this man is the reason for the "freak" stock market in August 2010.
Beckistan ties this all in with his pulpit rant of 40 days and 40 nights and ask "followers" to sign a pledge. Beck beliefs are that if your "affairs" are not in order with his 40/40 plan that when America stands still due to Beck's "forecasts and economic predictions" that you will be destroyed like the market.
Anyone whom has a any knowledge of the "Book of Mormon" created and devised by yet another "high school drop out" states that some type of "Armageddon" will strike all but the "Mormon" faith. Sounds like the profit beck learned his cultist religion well!
Take Beckistan's words for what they are worth, this Mormon, cultist, extremist, is doing nothing but making his living by scaring the living shit out of you, which is right wing Republican protocol and strategy.............